Præferencer for reproduktion? En analyse af den sociale stratificering af danske unges uddannelsesforventninger i henholdsvis 1968 og 2011

Nyere forskning i social ulighed i uddannelse viser, at den sociale baggrund sætter sig igennem unges uddannelsesvalg ud over de faglige meritter, som man i demokratiske samfund typisk ser som nøglen til at bryde den sociale arv. Artiklen belyser årsagerne bag denne regularitet ved at undersøge klasseforskelle i unges forventninger til deres uddannelsesmæssige fremtid for to kohorter af danske unge, der står foran deres første uddannelsesvalg, i henholdsvis 1968 og 2011. Artiklen tester en hypotese om, at sociale skævheder i unges uddannelsesforventninger drives af én i familien rodfæstet præference for fastholdelse af sociale privilegier over generationer. Den empiriske analyse støtter hypotesen og viser samtidig, at de sociale skævheder i unges uddannelsesforventninger stort set er uforandrede over de godt 40 år, der adskiller de to kohorter. Yderligere analyser, der inddrager forældres forventninger til den unge samt bedsteforældrenes uddannelsesniveau, støtter endvidere hypotesen. Analysens resultater peger i retning af, at forskningen med fordel kan rette blikket mod forventningsdannelsesprocesser i familien, hvis den vil forstå, hvorfor den sociale arv kan være svær at bryde. ENGELSK ABSTRACT: Kristian Bernt Karlson: A Taste for Reproduction? Social Class Differences in Danish Adolescents’ Educational Expectations in 1968 and in 2011 Recent research in educational stratification shows that social class background affects schooling decisions among equally talented students. Class inequalities in educational attainment therefore appear to have causes other than the unequal distribution of academic merits, merits that usually are taken to be the main vehicle of social mobility in Western democracies. This article investigates the potential mechanisms behind this unequal distribution by examining class differences in educational expectations among Danish adolescents in 1968 and 2011. The paper tests the hypothesis that class differences in educational expectations are caused by a preference for maintaining social privileges over generations, a preference rooted in bosom of the family. The empirical analysis supports the hypotheses. It shows that class differences in expectations among equally talented students have been remarkably stable over the four decades separating the two cohorts. Further analyses that include information on parents’ expectation for the adolescent and on the educational attainment of grandparents provide additional support for the hypothesis. The paper argues that future research in educational stratification would benefit from focusing on expectation processes located in the family, if it is to fully grasp why class differences in educational attainment appears so persistent even today. Keywords: inequality of opportunity, education, social class, expectations, aspirations.