IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PRICE MOVEMENTS ON THE ACCURACY OF NUMERICAL PRICE FORECASTING

The focus of this paper aims at comparison of two prognostic numerical models with different strategies for accuracy improvement. To verify prediction performance of proposed models, the forecasts of aluminium stock exchanges on the London Metal Exchange were carried out as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the first-order ordinary differential equation. Two techniques for accuracy improvement were utilized, replacing the initial condition value by the nearest known stock exchange and a modification of the differential equation in solved Cauchy initial problem by means of two known initial values. We dealt with an idea of how different price development affected the accuracy of proposed strategies. With regard to obtained results, it was found that the prognoses obtained by using two known initial values were more increasing or decreasing than prognoses calculated by utilizing the initial condition drift. The strategy of a changing form of the differential equation in the Cauchy initial problem can be considered slightly more accurate. Faster increased prognoses were more advantageous especially at a steep price increase and within a price increase following the price decline. A moderate increase of the prognoses determined by the initial condition drift fit reasonably well a price fluctuation and a price decline following the price increase.