Open AccessEarly Phasic Containment of COVID-19 in Substantially Affected States of India
Author(s) -
Manisha Mandal,
Shyamapada Mandal
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of drug delivery and therapeutics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2250-1177
DOI - 10.22270/jddt.v10i4-s.4284
Subject(s) - case fatality rate , covid-19 , pandemic , context (archaeology) , basic reproduction number , epidemiology , demography , medicine , environmental health , geography , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , population , archaeology , sociology
India is experiencing the global COVID-19 pandemic caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). To explore the early epidemic course and the effectiveness of lockdowns on COVID-19 pandemic in some worst-affected Indian states.
Methods: Using publicly available real data and model-based prediction, the growth rate, case fatality rate, serial interval, and time-varying reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 were estimated, before and after lockdown implementation in India.
Results: The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic sub-exponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1.
Conclusion: The current findings suggest the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Indian states, epidemiological parameters, lockdown effect.