Open AccessSHORT-TERM SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD
Author(s) -
ANASTASIA SERGEEVDTOCHY,
DMITRIY VLADIMIROVICH FOMIN
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
vestnik amurskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. seriâ "estestvennye i èkonomičeskie nauki"
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2073-0268
DOI - 10.22250/jasu.93.9
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , extrapolation , space weather , term (time) , meteorology , smoothing , global forecast system , environmental science , space (punctuation) , operator (biology) , weather forecasting , computer science , physics , econometrics , numerical weather prediction , mathematics , statistics , biochemistry , chemistry , repressor , quantum mechanics , transcription factor , gene , operating system
The paper presents information on the results of short-term space weather forecasting for the Vostochny cosmodrome based on data on the electron flux density with energies above 2 MeV received from satellites from the operator's site of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Moscow State University Institute of Nuclear Physics. The analysis of the calculated data on the level of near-Earth radiation, as a result of the use of various extrapolation methods, showed that the method of exponential smoothing is most effective for short-term space weather forecasting. Such forecasts can be used when planning launches of launch vehicles from spaceports.