Open AccessProjection of land use to 2030 and its impacts on water availability in a brazilian sub-basin: A LCM and SWAT approach
Author(s) -
Adriana Paulo de Sousa Oliveira,
Rafaela Ribeiro Gracelli,
Arthur Amaral e Silva,
Vitor Juste dos Santos,
Jackeline de Siqueira Castro,
Maria Lúcia Calijuri
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
geofísica internacional
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 0016-7169
DOI - 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.1.2189
Subject(s) - environmental science , swat model , soil and water assessment tool , land use , water resources , water resource management , hydrology (agriculture) , land cover , water scarcity , structural basin , streamflow , climate change , agricultural land , drainage basin , geography , geology , cartography , ecology , biology , paleontology , oceanography , geotechnical engineering
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can result in significant changes in a hydrographic ba- sin flow regime. Future projections about LULC and its interference with water availability help to identify extreme events in advance and help propose appropriate management measures. Thus, this study aimed to make the LULC projection for the year 2030 for the Alto Rio Grande (ARG) sub- basin, located in Southeastern Brazil. This region was chosen because of its intense water resources use and for having recently faced water scarcity as result of prolonged droughts and inadequate water resources management. To identify the LULC trend for the year 2030, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used, the map obtained was inserted in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model previously calibrated and validated for the region’ environmental and climatic conditions. The ARG sub-basin was affected by heavy rains in 2011, which resulted in changes in the landscape due to landslides. This particularity of the region contributed to the projection of LULC for the year 2030 to present an increase in forest and pastures to the agricultural areas detriment. When evaluating the impacts of these changes in water availability, it was observed that the SWAT model presented, for the same rainfall conditions, a reduction in peak streamflows of up to 59% and a reduction in the average monthly flow of up to 63% in 2030 in relation to the LULC observed in 2017. Thus, this study provides an important contribution by identifying a considerable reduction in water availability. These results will help to formulate strategies for water resources management and the adoption of measures to promote water security in the region.