Open AccessTHE PANDEMIC WAVES’ IMPACT ON ROMANIAN E-MARKET: A NON-LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL
Author(s) -
Costin Radu Boldea,
Bogdan Ion Boldea
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
facta universitatis. series: economics and organization
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2406-050X
pISSN - 0354-4699
DOI - 10.22190/fueo210730028b
Subject(s) - romanian , pandemic , covid-19 , linear regression , econometrics , logistic regression , regression analysis , linear model , economics , statistics , mathematics , medicine , virology , philosophy , linguistics , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , outbreak
The SARS-COV2 pandemic had a strong impact on the Romanian and European e-Market, manifested by the explosive increase in online sales, especially at the beginning of the two waves of epidemic, in spring and autumn. Using a statistical regressive analysis of monthly change in the volume of online sales in Romania, we propose a non-linear regression model of growth of this commercial sector that take into account the economic and socials effects of the three pandemic waves in 2020-2021, combining logistic equations of growth with attenuated quasi-periodical variations of market. The model allows a prediction of the overall behavior of online buyers for 2021 and 2022, similar to last year, but with annual growth peaks slightly less pronounced than in 2020.