Predicting Occult Lymph Node Metastasis by Nomogram in Patients with Lung Adenocarcinoma ≤2 cm

Background: Previous researches had not proposed any prediction models for occult lymph node metastasis (OLNM). Considering the occurrence of OLNM and the importance of OLNM management, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict OLNM of patients with lung adenocarcinoma ≤2 cm. Methods: Characteristics of patients with lung adenocarcinoma of ≤2 cm diameter at the Peking Union Medical College Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed. A nomogram model was developed. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration and decision curves were used to evaluate the predictive ability. Results: A total of 473 patients were enrolled, with an OLNM incidence of 7.4%. Four factors were selected as risk factors. The model had a C-index of 0.932. Calibration and decision curves were determined. Conclusion: Patients with pure ground-glass opacity (pGGO) or noninvasive adenocarcinoma have significantly lower risk of OLNM. SUV max , CEA, micropapillary and solid component were identified as independent risk factors. The nomogram model was effective in predicting OLNM preoperatively.