Open AccessModeling Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Disease Propagation and Control Strategies Using Memoryless State Transitions
Author(s) -
Mark B. Mitchell,
Walter E. Beyeler,
Patrick D. Finley,
Melissa Finley
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
applied science and innovative research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2474-4980
pISSN - 2474-4972
DOI - 10.22158/asir.v1n2p90
Subject(s) - peste des petits ruminants , rinderpest , herd , outbreak , veterinary medicine , disease control , disease , vaccination , contagious disease , agricultural science , biology , microbiology and biotechnology , medicine , virology , virus , pathology
Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is an infectious disease affecting goats and sheep. PPR has a mortality rate of 80% and a morbidity rate of 100% in naïve herds. This disease is currently of concern to Afghani goat and sheep herders as conditions in Afghanistan are conducive to the disease becoming an epidemic. PPR is similar to Rinderpest, but is not as well studied. There is a lack of empirical data on how the disease spreads or effective large-scale mitigation strategies. We developed a herd-level, event-driven model of PPR, using memoryless state transitions, to study how the virus propagates through a herd, and to identify effective control strategies for disparate herd configurations and environments. This model allows us to perform Sensitivity Analyses (SA) on environmental and disease parameters for which we do not have empirical data and to simulate the effectiveness of various control strategies. We find that reducing the amount of time from the identification of PPR in a herd to the vaccination of the herd will radically reduce the number of deaths that result from PPR. The goal of this model is to give policy makers a tool to develop effective containment strategies for managing outbreaks of PPR.