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An Inventory and Assessment of Models Used to Predict Emergency Evacuation and Consideration of Increasing Policymaker Involvement
Author(s) -
Lewis Carol Abel
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
risk, hazards and crisis in public policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.634
H-Index - 8
ISSN - 1944-4079
DOI - 10.2202/1944-4079.1025
Subject(s) - clearing , work (physics) , transport engineering , government (linguistics) , phone , variety (cybernetics) , computer science , emergency evacuation , operations research , mobile phone , environmental planning , business , environmental resource management , geography , environmental science , engineering , telecommunications , meteorology , finance , mechanical engineering , linguistics , philosophy , artificial intelligence
Evacuations from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in 2005 illuminated the issues with clearing large numbers of residents via urban areas' roadways and public transportation systems. In the Gulf Coast of Texas, problems arose from people not observing the designated evacuation zones and protocol. This was particularly acute in the Houston area when residents of that city in large numbers failed to await the exiting of people from Galveston Island and other coastal communities. Consequently, the roadways were clogged inland and residents in extremely high‐risk areas were unable to leave. Newly developed software for transportation planning and traffic simulation can make a big impact on the way transportation professionals work. Rapid developments in computer power, mobile phone technology, and data transfer speeds, plus radical improvements in software are transforming the way in which information can be linked to government. A number of models exist that purport to forecast evacuation volumes under a variety of scenarios. A review of these models and their potential application shows how a number of communities could make better decisions about the best methods and routes for evacuation.