A Change Talk Model for Abstinence Based on Web-Based Anonymous Gambler Chat Meeting Data by Using an Automatic Change Talk Classifier: Development Study

Background Change and sustain talks (negative and positive comments) on gambling have been relevant for determining gamblers’ outcomes but they have not been used to clarify the abstinence process in anonymous gambler meetings. Objective The aim of this study was to develop a change talk model for abstinence based on data extracted from web-based anonymous gambler chat meetings by using an automatic change talk classifier. Methods This study used registry data from the internet. The author accessed web-based anonymous gambler chat meetings in Japan and sampled 1.63 million utterances (two-sentence texts) from 267 abstinent gamblers who have remained abstinent for at least three years and 1625 nonabstinent gamblers. The change talk classifier in this study automatically classified gamblers’ utterances into change and sustain talks. Results Abstinent gamblers showed higher proportions of change talks and lower probability of sustain talks compared with nonabstinent gamblers. The change talk model for abstinence, involving change and sustain talks, classified abstinent and nonabstinent gamblers through the use of a support vector machine with a radial basis kernel function. The model also indicated individual evaluation scores for abstinence and the ideal proportion of change talks for all participants according to their previous utterances. Conclusions Abstinence likelihood among gamblers can be increased by providing personalized evaluation values and indicating the optimal proportion of change talks. Moreover, this may help to prevent severe mental, social, and financial problems caused by the gambling disorder.