Premium
Estimating Detection Probability Parameters for Plethodon Salamanders Using the Robust Capture‐Recapture Design
Author(s) -
BAILEY LARISSA L.,
SIMONS THEODORE R.,
POLLOCK KENNETH H.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
the journal of wildlife management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.94
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1937-2817
pISSN - 0022-541X
DOI - 10.2193/0022-541x(2004)068[0001:edppfp]2.0.co;2
Subject(s) - mark and recapture , emigration , akaike information criterion , salamander , population , statistics , ecology , geography , biology , mathematics , demography , archaeology , sociology
Recent concern over global amphibian population declines has highlighted a need for more extensive, rigorous monitoring programs. Two sources of variation, spatial variation and variation in detection probability, make the design and implementation of effective monitoring programs difficult. We used Pollock's robust design in a 3 ‐year capture‐recapture study to estimate detection probability and temporary emigration for Plethodon sala‐manders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (Tennessee/North Carolina), USA. We used 12 competing models to determine the importance of temporary emigration, and we explored temporal and behavioral effects on conditional capture probabilities. The top 4 models all included random temporary emigration, and Akaike model weights indicated that this parameter was the most important. Models that contained behavioral effects in capture probabilities were selected more often than models with equal capture probabilities for marked and pre‐viously unmarked individuals. The “best” model contained random emigration and behavioral effects and was selected 4 times as often as any other model. When we included Markovian emigration, the probability of emi‐grating from the surface usually was less than the probability of remaining an emigrant (of site‐years). Mar‐kovian emigration estimates often were similar and always had overlapping confidence intervals, thus the Markov‐ian model rarely was chosen over the random emigration models (only 9. of site‐years). Our study is the first to formally estimate temporary emigration in terrestrial salamander populations, and our results verify that signifi‐cant proportions of terrestrial salamander populations are subterranean. We determined that the probability of capturing salamanders on the surface may also vary temporally within a sampling season. Therefore, we caution against using unadjusted count indices to compare salamander populations over time or space unless detection probabilities are estimated. Temporary emigration models will improve abundance estimates when a large pro‐portion of the population is unavailable for capture during a given sampling period.