EXPANSION OF CLIMATIC SPATIAL RANGE OF CRIMEAN HEMORRHAGIC FEVER IN RUSSIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES UNDER PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

The aim of the work is to give a brief description of the Crimean hemorrhagic fever (=Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever) as a nosological unit and to assess possible climate-related changes in its spatial range in Russia and neighboring countries in response to projected climate change in accordance with the scenarios of moderate and extreme anthropogenic impact on the Earth's climate system RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Crimean hemorrhagic fever is an acute infectious disease of humans transmitted through the bites of ticks of the arid zone. The incidence on the territory of the Russian Federation is low, less than 300 cases per year (according to long-term data), but in humans it is often accompanied by severe damage to many organs and systems of the patient. A climate predictor was used to model the boundary Crimean hemorrhagic fever spatial range, namely, the isotherm of the sum of active temperatures SAT = 3000°C٠day at a threshold of 10°C. It coincides quite satisfactory with the northern boundary of the Crimean hemorrhagic fever spatial range given in special scientific literature. In addition to climatic requirements, we also introduced an ecological one into the model: the northern boundary of the spatial range should be within the forest-steppe zone, since the vectors are ticks of the arid zone. Model cartographic estimates of changes in the Crimean hemorrhagic fever spatial range under scenario of moderate anthropogenic impact on the Earth's climate system RCP4.5 showed that the spatial range will expand northward, as well as into the high-altitude regions of the Caucasus and Central Asia, in the 21st century. The features of the spatial range changes under the RCP8.5 scenario are the same, but the expansion is more pronounced. These changes will be most fully pronounced, if the arid zone border moves slightly to the North due to climate-related reduction of the forest zone. The assessment of changes under both scenarios did not revealed no a trends toward a reduction in the Crimean hemorrhagic fever spatial range in Russia and neighboring counries