Open AccessMODELING OF NOZOAREL CHANGES AND ZONE OF INCREASED EPIDEMIC RISK OF WEST NILE FEVER IN RUSSIA IN CONNECTION WITH THE EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
Author(s) -
V.V. Yasjukevich,
И. О. Попов,
N.V. Yasjukevich
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
problemy èkologičeskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniâ èkosistem
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2686-7710
pISSN - 0207-2564
DOI - 10.21513/0207-2564-2019-3-28-37
Subject(s) - west nile virus , russian federation , climate change , geography , general circulation model , connection (principal bundle) , climatology , environmental science , physical geography , socioeconomics , virology , geology , mathematics , biology , virus , economics , regional science , oceanography , geometry
In the course of the analysis of the literature, the main climatic parameter was determined that determines the nosoareal of West Nile fever in Russia – the sum of the active temperatures. It has been shown that for intense virus circulation in the warm season, the sum of active temperatures at a threshold of 10°C should be more than 2200°C, at values of more than 2800°C the area is considered epidemic. Based on these criteria, maps of the changes in the nosoareal of West Nile fever under model climate conditions in different periods of the 21st century are constructed. It has been shown that over the 21st century, the nosoareal and the area of increased risk of the development of epidemic foci of West Nile fever will expand to the north and capture new subjects of the Russian Federation.