Premium
Simulation Climate Change Impact on Runoff and Sediment Yield in a Small Watershed in the Basque Country, Northern Spain
Author(s) -
Zabaleta Ane,
Meaurio Maite,
Ruiz Estilita,
Antigüedad Iñaki
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of environmental quality
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.888
H-Index - 171
eISSN - 1537-2537
pISSN - 0047-2425
DOI - 10.2134/jeq2012.0209
Subject(s) - watershed , surface runoff , sediment , environmental science , climate change , hydrology (agriculture) , yield (engineering) , water resource management , geography , geology , oceanography , ecology , paleontology , geotechnical engineering , machine learning , computer science , biology , materials science , metallurgy
Climate change is likely to have an impact on runoff and fluvial sediments in watersheds. These factors are among those used to characterize water bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, it is important to investigate the extent to which climate change may hinder the achievement of the objectives of the WFD. We explored the potential impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield for the Aixola watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration (2007–2010) and validation (2005–2006) results were rated as satisfactory. Subsequently, simulations were run for four climate change model–scenario combinations based on two general circulation models (CGCM2 and ECHAM4) under two emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) from 2011 to 2100. All combinations predicted that runoff and sediment yield would decrease compared with baseline (1961–1990). Three combinations suggested that runoff and sediments would decrease by 0.13 to 0.45 m 3 s −1 and 0.11 to 0.43 t every year from 2011 to 2100. However, the CGCM2‐B2 scenario resulted in an “extremely likely” increase in runoff and sediments of 0.94 m 3 s −1 and 0.57 t every year. These variations in annual sediment yield are closely related to changes in precipitation. The high degree of uncertainty in the results must be considered when assessing potential impacts and making decisions about adaptation measures. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate future sediment yields in our region could be a useful starting point to explore future hydrological impacts in the area.