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Estimating Net Carbon Emissions and Agricultural Response to Potential Carbon Offset Policies
Author(s) -
Popp Michael,
Nalley Lanier,
Fortin Corey,
Smith Aaron,
Brye Kristofor
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
agronomy journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.752
H-Index - 131
eISSN - 1435-0645
pISSN - 0002-1962
DOI - 10.2134/agronj2010.0517
Subject(s) - agronomy , environmental science , greenhouse gas , tillage , climate change , sorghum , soil carbon , offset (computer science) , agriculture , cropping , carbon sequestration , carbon offset , oryza sativa , agricultural economics , economics , carbon dioxide , soil water , soil science , biology , ecology , computer science , programming language , biochemistry , gene
In this study, we developed a technique for estimating soil C sequestration from crop production with detailed spatial differences in production practices, tillage effects, and soil textures often overlooked when modeling state‐level implications of climate change policies. The model also tracks C equivalent (CE) emissions from fertilizer, fuel, and agricultural chemical use. Using Arkansas as an example, a model that maximizes crop returns to producers in conjunction with C offset payments allowed estimation of probable changes in county‐level cropping patterns and income as a result of varying C prices. While income ramifications of a C‐offset climate change policy are positive, significant uncertainty about resultant greenhouse gas (GHG) effects are demonstrated. Crops included were corn ( Zea mays L.), cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.), grain sorghum [ Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.], rice ( Oryza sativa L.) and wheat ( Triticum spp.). As a result of this detailed analysis, two caveats are that (i) policy recommendations hinge on a baseline scenario that would change with changes in input and output price levels, with these interactions not modeled within, and (ii) monitoring costs of a C‐offset market could be significant.