Inter‐Seasonal Variation in Soybean and Maize Yields under Global Environmental Change

Projected global environment changes will have major influences on crop yields. A very important aspects of crop yields, and societal adjustments to environmental changes, may well be altered year‐to‐year stability in yields. Simulations for three locations in the Midwest with mechanistic growth models for maize ( Zea mays L.) and soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.] showed important species differences in projected yield stability. Maize yields under global environment changes were approximately equal to current levels and the year‐to‐year yield variability was unchanged. Soybean, however, had higher mean yields under changed global environments as compared to the current environment, and there was substantially greater year‐to‐year variability under possible future environments. This disparity among maize and soybean in mean yield changes and stability across years may have important consequences on crop management and stabilization of food and feed supplies.