Premium
Estimating Crop Yields at Seeding Time in the Great Plains
Author(s) -
Pengra Ray F.
Publication year - 1952
Publication title -
agronomy journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.752
H-Index - 131
eISSN - 1435-0645
pISSN - 0002-1962
DOI - 10.2134/agronj1952.00021962004400050012x
Subject(s) - crop , citation , state (computer science) , seeding , library science , agricultural science , agricultural economics , mathematics , political science , agronomy , geography , computer science , economics , forestry , algorithm , environmental science , biology
NFORMATION at seeding time regarding prospective crop 1 yields would be of major significance to farmers in the subhumid area of the Great Plains. Crop yield variation within the entire Northern Great Plains is much greater than for other areas due to the fact that average precipitation is at the margin of enough to produce profitable yields. In years of below average precipitation there is a marked deficiency in the amount needed, and in the driest years this deficiency results in complete crop failure. The recent years of high precipitation should not be considered as an indication that there has been any major change in the long time weather pattern for this area. Normal precipitation for South Dakota is 19.10 inches. Average for the 10-year period 1929 to 1938 was 16.19 inches, and for the 10 years 1939 to 1948 20.00 inches. The argument that dry years are a thing of the past and will not come again can be motivated only by wishful thinking. Dry years have occurred periodically over the entire period for which data are available, and we should expect their return. To the extent that we can define the risk in crop production, farmers can prepare for such contingency through adjustment of their farming program to comply with weather conditions or possibly through a crop insurance program and so reduce the uncertainties in farm production that have been particularly troublesome to farmers within this subhumid area. Amount of precipitation received appears to be one of the major factors and possibly the most significant limiting factor for which we have factual data affecting crop production within this area of limited rainfall. The study as presented includes only South Dakota data. South Dakota, as a result of its central location in the Great Plains, may well be considered to represent conditions for the entire area. Certainly many conditions in this state are typical of the entire Great Plains. The Division of Dry Land Agriculture of the Bureau of Plant Industry of the U.S.D.A. found the quantity of water used in the production of wheat and corn within the semiarid regions to be governed by the amount stored in the soil at the beginning of the growing period.3 Other publications indicate that within the areas of deficient rainfall the moisture in the soil at seeding time makes a significant contribution to crop ~ roduc t ion .~