Open AccessSoil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change
Author(s) -
Basso B.,
Dumont B.,
Maestrini B.,
Shcherbak I.,
Robertson G. P.,
Porter J. R.,
Smith P.,
Paustian K.,
Grace P. R.,
Asseng S.,
Bassu S.,
Biernath C.,
Boote K. J.,
Cammarano D.,
De Sanctis G.,
Durand J.L.,
Ewert F.,
Gayler S.,
Hyndman D. W.,
Kent J.,
Martre P.,
Nendel C.,
Priesack E.,
Ripoche D.,
Ruane A. C.,
Sharp J.,
Thorburn P. J.,
Hatfield J. L.,
Jones J. W.,
Rosenzweig C.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
agricultural and environmental letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.681
H-Index - 12
ISSN - 2471-9625
DOI - 10.2134/ael2018.05.0026
Subject(s) - soil carbon , environmental science , yield (engineering) , agronomy , climate change , nitrogen , crop yield , crop , carbon dioxide , carbon fibers , soil water , soil science , chemistry , mathematics , materials science , ecology , biology , metallurgy , organic chemistry , algorithm , composite number
Core Ideas SOC decline, due to increased temperatures, reduces wheat and maize yields globally. CO 2 increase to 540 ppm partially compensates yield losses due to increased temperatures. Accounting for soil feedbacks is critical when evaluating climate change impacts on crop yield.A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO 2 concentrations on maize ( Zea mays L.) and wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO 2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO 2 scenario.