Open AccessAdult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Declining as Expected (Not as Desired)
Author(s) -
David Méndez,
Kenneth E. Warner
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
american journal of public health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.284
H-Index - 264
eISSN - 1541-0048
pISSN - 0090-0036
DOI - 10.2105/ajph.94.2.251
Subject(s) - environmental health , medicine , cigarette smoking , smoking prevalence , demography , smoking epidemiology , population , sociology
We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.