Open AccessAccuracy and Importance of Projections From a Dynamic Simulation Model of Smoking Prevalence in the United States
Author(s) -
Kenneth E. Warner,
David Méndez
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
american journal of public health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.284
H-Index - 264
eISSN - 1541-0048
pISSN - 0090-0036
DOI - 10.2105/ajph.2012.300771
Subject(s) - smoking prevalence , national health interview survey , tobacco control , public health , environmental health , demography , medicine , population , sociology , nursing
We compared projections from a dynamic model of US adult smoking prevalence with official estimates of prevalence from the National Health Interview Survey. Ten years after they were made, the model projections closely fit the National Health Interview Survey estimates for 2005 and 2010. We conclude that a verified model of adult smoking prevalence can assist governmental authorities in establishing aspirational but feasible targets for tobacco control. By extension, carefully crafted models can help in goal setting in multiple areas of public health.