Open AccessA composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay
Author(s) -
Pablo Gálaso,
Sandra Rodríguez López
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
estudios regionales en economía, población y desarrollo
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2007-3739
DOI - 10.20983/epd.2016.31.1
Subject(s) - industrial production index , composite indicator , business cycle , composite index , index (typography) , economic indicator , econometrics , variable (mathematics) , series (stratigraphy) , industrial production , composite number , production (economics) , economics , statistics , mathematics , computer science , macroeconomics , mathematical analysis , paleontology , algorithm , biology , world wide web
This study estimates a composite leading business cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2013). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period