Open AccessCOVID-19 Outbreak Forecasting and Effects of Self-Restraint Against Excursions in Tokyo, Japan, as of the End of March, 2020, Before the Emergency Declaration on April 7, 2020
Author(s) -
Yoshiyuki Sugishita,
Junko Kurita,
Tamie Sugawara,
Yasushi Ohkusa
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of disaster research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.332
H-Index - 18
eISSN - 1883-8030
pISSN - 1881-2473
DOI - 10.20965/jdr.2021.p0006
Subject(s) - declaration , outbreak , covid-19 , medicine , demography , confidence interval , pandemic , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , virology , law , political science , sociology
In Tokyo, Japan, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases have been increasing gradually since late March 2020. This study was aimed to predict the effects of self-restraint against excursions in Tokyo before the emergency declaration of April 7, 2020. Data of symptomatic patients collected between January 14 and March 28, 2020, in Tokyo, were used to formulate a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model using three age classes and estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ). Based on the estimated R 0 , we inferred outbreak outcomes and medical burdens if self-restraint against excursions had not been enacted. Thereafter, we estimated the effects of self-restraint against excursions. The results suggested an R 0 value of 2.86, with a 95% confidence interval of 2.73–2.97. It is likely that the exhaustion of medical resources could have occurred on April 28, 2020, if no self-restraint against excursions had occurred. If self-restraint against excursions had been enacted from April 6, 2020, and more than 60% of trips outside the home had been restricted voluntarily, medical care services would then have been predicted to be maintained. Our suggestion might have contributed to countermeasures against COVID-19 in Tokyo.