Open AccessReservoir Operation for Water Supply Considering Operational Ensemble Hydrological Predictions
Author(s) -
Daisuke Nohara,
Toshitaka Hori
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of disaster research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.332
H-Index - 18
eISSN - 1883-8030
pISSN - 1881-2473
DOI - 10.20965/jdr.2018.p0650
Subject(s) - environmental science , structural basin , drainage basin , hydrological modelling , hydrology (agriculture) , precipitation , water supply , water resource management , computer science , meteorology , geology , climatology , environmental engineering , geomorphology , geotechnical engineering , cartography , geography , physics
This paper presents approaches and case studies for the introduction of ensemble hydrological predictions to reservoir operation for water supply. Medium-term operational ensemble forecasts of precipitation are employed to improve the real-time reservoir operation for drought management considering longer prospects with respect to future hydrological conditions in the target river basin. Real-time optimization of the water release strategy is conducted using dynamic programming approaches considering ensemble hydrological predictions. A case study on the application of ensemble hydrological predictions to reservoir operation for water use is reported as an example, with a hypothetical target river basin whose hydrological characteristics are derived from an actual reservoir and river basin.