Open AccessBias Correction in Typhoon and Storm Surge Projection Considering Characteristics of Global Climate Model MRI-AGCM3.2S
Author(s) -
Noriaki Hashimoto,
Yukihiro Kinashi,
Tomoko Kawashima,
Masaaki Yokota,
Masaru Yamashiro,
Mitsuyoshi Kodama
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of disaster research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1883-8030
pISSN - 1881-2473
DOI - 10.20965/jdr.2015.p0448
Subject(s) - typhoon , storm surge , climatology , anomaly (physics) , environmental science , surge , storm , tropical cyclone , meteorology , geology , oceanography , geography , physics , condensed matter physics
The typhoons that so often rage across Japan’s southwestern island, Kyushu, are expected to occur even oftener in the future due to global warming. Storm surge projections have been reported based on the super-high-resolution global climate model MRI-AGCM3.2S developed by Japan’s Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). AGCM3.2S overestimates typhoon strength around Japanese islands, however, and this could lead to exaggerated storm surge projection. We therefore evaluate a bias correction method of typhoon strength considering the typhoon characteristics of AGCM3.2 in estimating maximum storm surge anomaly on the Ariake Sea coast. Our results indicated the possibility of storm surge anomaly of 2.8 m, exceeding the current design storm surge anomaly of 2.36 m at the innermost Ariake Sea.