Open AccessIndirect Economic Loss Estimation due to Seismic Highway Transportation System Disruption in “5.12” Wenchuan Earthquake
Author(s) -
Shi Yan,
Shaoyu Wang
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of disaster research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.332
H-Index - 18
eISSN - 1883-8030
pISSN - 1881-2473
DOI - 10.20965/jdr.2013.p1018
Subject(s) - computable general equilibrium , estimation , economic impact analysis , china , economic cost , economic analysis , capital city , transport engineering , economics , geography , civil engineering , agricultural economics , engineering , economic geography , neoclassical economics , management , archaeology , macroeconomics
This paper aims to model the indirect economic loss due to damaged highway transportation systems in earthquake-affected areas that tends to be overlooked by decision-makers compared to direct economic loss that can be measured by repair or replacement cost. A regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is applied for estimating indirect economic loss in the whole economic system of the affected area. Shifang is a county-level city located in northwest Chengdu city, which is the capital of Sichuan Province, China. In the “5.12” Wenchuan earthquake, Shifang was one of the ten hardest-hit counties or cities and its highway transportation system was seriously damaged. It was selected as a case study to evaluate the indirect economic loss by seismic highway transportation system disruption. Results show that indirect economic loss accounted for nearly 36.4% of direct economic loss, which is as significant as direct economic loss resulting from earthquakedamaged highway transportation systems, and thus should be paid enough attention by decision-makers in pre-earthquake prevention and postearthquake recovery and reconstruction.