Open AccessEffects of Global Warming on Heavy Rainfall During the Baiu Season Projected by a Cloud-System-Resolving Model
Author(s) -
Masaomi Nakamura,
S. Kaneda,
Yasutaka Wakazuki,
Chiashi Muroi,
Akihiro Hashimoto,
Teruyuki Kato,
Akira Noda,
Masanori Yoshizaki,
Kazuaki Yasunaga
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
journal of disaster research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.332
H-Index - 18
eISSN - 1883-8030
pISSN - 1881-2473
DOI - 10.20965/jdr.2008.p0015
Subject(s) - environmental science , climatology , global warming , climate model , climate change , tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , cyclone (programming language) , geology , geography , oceanography , computer science , field programmable gate array , computer hardware
Under the Kyosei-4 Project, unprecedented high resolution global and regional climate models were developed on the Earth Simulator to investigate the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones, baiu frontal rainfall systems, and heavy rainfall events that could not be resolved using conventional climate models. For the regional climate model, a nonhydrostatic model (NHM) with a horizontal resolution of 5 km was developed to be used in the simulation of heavy rainfall during the baiu season in Japan. Simulations in June and July were executed for 10 years in present and future global warming climates. It was found that, due to global warming, mean rainfall is projected to increase except in eastern and northern Japan, the frequency of heavy rainfall events would increase and its increment rate become higher for heavier rainfall, and return values for extreme rainfall would grow. Experiments using an NHM with a horizontal resolution of 1 km were conducted to study the effects of resolution. Compared to 5 km resolution, it expresses the organization of rainfall systems causing heavy rainfall and the appearance-frequency distribution of rainfall for variable intensities more realistically.