Open AccessRecent Trends and Future Projections in Asian Air Pollution
Author(s) -
Itsushi Uno,
Toshimasa Ohara,
Kazuyo Yamaji,
Junichi Kurokawa
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
journal of disaster research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.332
H-Index - 18
eISSN - 1883-8030
pISSN - 1881-2473
DOI - 10.20965/jdr.2007.p0163
Subject(s) - air quality index , environmental science , peninsula , china , air pollution , climatology , chemical transport model , east asia , emission inventory , pollution , pollutant , satellite , range (aeronautics) , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , geography , geology , ecology , chemistry , materials science , organic chemistry , archaeology , engineering , aerospace engineering , composite material , biology
We studied trends in Asian air pollution in recent decades using air-quality monitoring station data, satellite retrieval data (GOME NO 2 ), and regional-scale chemical transport model (CTM) simulation. A newly developed annual Asian-scale emission inventory (REAS) from 1980-2003 was used in observation data analysis and CTM. Analyses of recent trends in annual emissions in China by REAS and satellite GOME NO 2 show an 8-10% increase after 2000 suggesting the impact of long-range transport of secondary air pollutants in regions and countries downwind. Detailed analyses of O 3 observation data in Japan suggest an annual averaged O 3 concentration increase of 2% yr -1 due to this long-range transport. We extended our regional air quality study targeting 2020. REAS provides three emission scenarios for China: the reference case (REF), the policy success case (PSC), and the policy failure case (PFC). Projected REF emissions for 2020 show O 3 concentrations rising to 75 to 90 ppbv in June and 75 to 85 ppbv in August over the North China Plain. Projected PFC emissions bring an increase of monthly averaged O 3 with greater than 20 ppbv (1 ppbv yr -1 growth) in the North China Plain. Surface O 3 under the PFC scenario is enhanced by 6 to 8 ppbv over the Korean Peninsula and by 2 to 6 ppbv in Japan from 2000 to 2020 despite the reduction of NO x in Japan. This may become a critical level in air quality in Asia.