Open AccessIMPLEMENTASI METODE BOX-JENKINS UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP HARGA MINYAK INDONESIA
Author(s) -
Desty Rakhmawati,
Eka Tripustikasari
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
jurnal ilmiah matematika dan pendidikan matematika (jmp)/jurnal ilmiah matematika dan pendidikan matematika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2550-0422
pISSN - 2085-1456
DOI - 10.20884/1.jmp.2017.9.2.2869
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , oil price , economics , west texas intermediate , agricultural science , economy , mathematics , monetary economics , environmental science , time series , statistics
Recently Indonesia's oil prices have declined despite oil consumption increases. The decline in Indonesia oil prices is affected by world oil prices. Therefore, the aim of this research is to predict WTI-type world oil price using Box-Jenkins method for non seasonal ARIMA modeling and how big does it influence to Indonesia oil price. WTI world oil price predictions for January to December 2017 are 54.17035, 54.89475, 55.12885, 55.20406, 55.22817, 55.23590, 55.23837, 55.23916, 55.23942, 55.23950, 55.23953, and 55.23953 dollars per barrels, respectively. Then the magnitude of the effect of WTI world oil prices to Indonesia oil prices is 1.735229 dollars per barrels.