Open AccessPREDIKSI KREDIT DAN INDEKS MUSIMAN (SEASONAL INDEX) PADA BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT DI KABUPATEN JEMBER
Author(s) -
Hari Sukarno,
Ratna Pratiwi Nugroho,
Susanti Prasetiyaningtiyas
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
bisma
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2623-0879
pISSN - 1978-3108
DOI - 10.19184/bisma.v14i3.15982
Subject(s) - index (typography) , exponential smoothing , nonprobability sampling , statistics , econometrics , business , distribution (mathematics) , sample (material) , actuarial science , economics , mathematics , computer science , population , medicine , environmental health , mathematical analysis , chemistry , chromatography , world wide web
This research aims to analyze the credit's predictive value, the development pattern of credit distribution, and the credit fluctuations of 13 Rural Banks in Jember, influenced by seasonal index variables, credit interest, NPL, LDR, ROA, CAR, and operational efficiency ratio. This study used an explanatory research approach. The sample consisted of all Rural Banks' quarterly financial reports in 2014-2019 taken by a purposive sampling method. Data were analyzed using three methods, i.e., double exponential smoothing, moving average ratio, and multiple linear regression analysis methods. Results showed that, according to each data analysis method, ten Rural Banks experienced increased credit distribution. However, the other three Rural Banks experienced a decrease in credit distribution. The study results also indicated an increasing trend in the development pattern of credit distribution. Meanwhile, the NPL and LDR variables partially influenced credit fluctuations.
Keywords: credit prediction, rural bank, seasonal index