Demographics of the Modern World: Comments on Theories

The article is devoted to the consideration of the key causes and factors of changing trends in the demographic development of the countries of the North and South in the context of fundamental demographic theories. The mechanisms of adjustment of reproductive behavior and their impact on the dynamics of fertility in the regions of the world are analyzed. The features of the demographic transition in the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America are considered, as well as the author’s forecasts about the likely dynamics of the population in these regions are given. In sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth continues and will continue at least until the end of the century. If the trajectory of fertility in Africa repeats its decline in other regions of the world, then by the end of the century the average total fertility rate will fall to the level of simple reproduction there, and the population will grow from the current 1 billion to 2.1 billion people in the middle of the century and 3.8 billion people at the end of the century. The critical analysis of the first and second theories of demographic transition in the conditions of modern society and specific national characteristics of the countries of the world is carried out. The conclusion provides a theoretical and practical analysis of family and demographic policies, as well as their prospects in modern conditions.