Open AccessAre Preliminary Data Of Output Growth And Inflation Reliable Predictors?
Author(s) -
Hamid Baghestani
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of applied business research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2157-8834
pISSN - 0892-7626
DOI - 10.19030/jabr.v20i3.2210
Subject(s) - inflation (cosmology) , style (visual arts) , span (engineering) , orthogonality , economics , econometrics , mathematics , history , engineering , physics , geometry , theoretical physics , civil engineering , archaeology
The hypothesis that the preliminary announcements of output growth and inflation are reliable predictors of the revised data is tested for 1969.1-1991.4 and 1969.1-2000.4. Our test results indicate that these preliminary announcements are unbiased predictors. The output growth revision is orthogonal to the past revisions of both output growth and inflation available at the time of announcement. The inflation revision, however, fails to be orthogonal to such past revisions. While unbiased, the lack of orthogonality of the inflation announcement suggests room for improvement.