Open AccessMulti-period Survey Forecasts Of Business Investment: Is There Room For Improvement?
Author(s) -
Hamid Baghestani,
Woo Yeon Jung
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of applied business research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.149
H-Index - 22
eISSN - 2157-8834
pISSN - 0892-7626
DOI - 10.19030/jabr.v15i4.5656
Subject(s) - univariate , investment (military) , exploit , span (engineering) , econometrics , economics , investment decisions , business cycle , actuarial science , business , finance , statistics , computer science , macroeconomics , engineering , mathematics , multivariate statistics , political science , computer security , behavioral economics , politics , law , civil engineering
The ASA-NBER multiperiod survey forecasts of business investment are compared with univariate forecasts to assess predictive information content. In general, the survey forecasts fail to be unbiased, and, none fully exploit the information in the past history of business investment. Interestingly, however, they contain predictive information on other relevant (quantitative or qualitative) variables. Combined forecasts of survey and univariate models score significant improvements over either, suggesting their potential usefulness in policy-making.