Open AccessHow Accurate Are Professional Economic Forecasts?
Author(s) -
Hamid Baghestani,
David M. Nelson
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of applied business research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.149
H-Index - 22
eISSN - 2157-8834
pISSN - 0892-7626
DOI - 10.19030/jabr.v10i1.5956
Subject(s) - forecast error , consensus forecast , survey of professional forecasters , econometrics , span (engineering) , economics , economic forecasting , statistics , actuarial science , mathematics , engineering , macroeconomics , monetary policy , civil engineering
This paper examines the forecast accuracy of the ASA-NBER survey annual data on seven major macroeconomic indicators for 1983-1991. Although no single forecaster was consistently accurate, it is generally shown that (i) the average forecast error is reasonably low, (ii) the forecast accuracy and the forecasters agreement on their man forecast improve as the forecast horizon becomes shorter, and (iii) the consensus of professional forecasts is superior to the nae forecast.