Catching up on global change: new ragweed genotypes emerge in elevated CO 2 conditions

Resource uptake by neighboring plants can be an important driver of natural selection in a changing environment. As climate and resource conditions are altered, genotypes that dominate within mixed populations today may differ markedly from those in future landscapes. We tested whether and how the dominance of different genotypes of the allergenic plant, common ragweed, may change in response to projected atmospheric CO 2 conditions. We grew twelve maternal lines in experimental stands at either ambient or twice‐ambient levels of CO 2 . We then constructed a model that combines classical quantitative genetics theory with a set of a priori predictions about the relative performance of genotypes in the two treatments. Our findings show a complete reversal in the genotypic size hierarchy of ragweed plants in response to projected atmospheric CO 2 conditions. Genotypes that are competitively suppressed in size at ambient levels become dominant under experimental doubling of CO 2 . Subordinated plants, in turn, boost their reproductive allocation to that of dominants, shrinking the fitness gap among all genotypes in high CO 2 . Extending our model to a contextual analysis framework, we further show that natural selection on size is reduced at elevated CO 2 , because an individual's position within the size hierarchy becomes less important for reproduction than it is in ambient conditions. Our work points to potential future ecological and evolutionary changes in this widespread allergenic plant.