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Climate and the conservation biology of North Atlantic right whales: the right whale at the wrong time?
Author(s) -
Greene Charles H.,
Pershing Andrew J.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
frontiers in ecology and the environment
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.918
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1540-9309
pISSN - 1540-9295
DOI - 10.1890/1540-9295(2004)002[0029:catcbo]2.0.co;2
Subject(s) - right whale , whale , fishery , oceanography , geography , biology , geology
With the end of commercial whaling, it was thought that populations of the highly endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) would gradually recover. However, recent modeling studies have shown that the population’s growth rate increased gradually during the 1980s, but began declining in the early 1990s, when female mortality rates increased substantially. Demographic projections predict that, assuming birth and mortality rates remain comparable to those observed in the early 1990s, the population will become extinct in less than 200 years. Further extrapolations suggest that reducing mortality rates by a few female deaths per year through conservation efforts would be sufficient to support a slow recovery of the population. However, the effects of climate variability and change on calving rates may make the North Atlantic right whale even more vulnerable than previous projections have suggested. Failure to incorporate the effects of climate in demographic projections may lead us to underestimate the conservation efforts required to ensure recovery of this whale population.