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Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics
Author(s) -
Logan Jesse A.,
Régnière Jacques,
Powell James A.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
frontiers in ecology and the environment
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.918
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1540-9309
pISSN - 1540-9295
DOI - 10.1890/1540-9295(2003)001[0130:atiogw]2.0.co;2
Subject(s) - climate change , herbivore , disturbance (geology) , global warming , pest analysis , ecology , effects of global warming , global change , environmental resource management , geography , environmental science , biology , paleontology , botany
Forest insects and pathogens are the most pervasive and important agents of disturbance in North American forests, affecting an area almost 50 times larger than fire and with an economic impact nearly five times as great. The same attributes that result in an insect herbivore being termed a “pest” predispose it to disruption by climate change, particularly global warming. Although many pest species have co‐evolved relationships with forest hosts that may or may not be harmful over the long term, the effects on these relationships may have disastrous consequences. We consider both the data and models necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate change, as well as the assessments that have been made to date. The results indicate that all aspects of insect outbreak behavior will intensify as the climate warms. This reinforces the need for more detailed monitoring and evaluations as climatic events unfold. Luckily, we are well placed to make rapid progress, using software tools, databases, and the models that are already available.