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With and without warning: managing ecosystems in a changing world
Author(s) -
Pace Michael L,
Carpenter Stephen R,
Cole Jonathan J
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
frontiers in ecology and the environment
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.918
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1540-9309
pISSN - 1540-9295
DOI - 10.1890/150003
Subject(s) - warning system , resilience (materials science) , environmental resource management , ecosystem , climate change , psychological resilience , scale (ratio) , ecosystem services , environmental science , business , risk analysis (engineering) , computer science , ecology , geography , cartography , psychology , telecommunications , physics , biology , psychotherapist , thermodynamics
Many ecosystems are likely to experience abrupt changes and extreme conditions due to forces such as climate change. These events and their consequences – including the loss of ecosystem services – may be predictable or may occur without warning. Given these considerations, greater efforts are needed in two areas of research: improvements in early warning capability and advances in the management of ecosystems to enhance resilience. Current research has provided enhanced forecasting ability, scenario analysis, and detection of statistical anomalies that indicate abrupt change, but two key concerns remain: the detection of early warning signs near thresholds of change and the use of such warnings for ecosystem management. Furthermore, there may be no advance warning for some types of abrupt change, reinforcing the need to enhance resilience by managing ecosystems to reduce the possibility of crossing thresholds of change. Designing and implementing large‐scale management programs is one way to confront these problems.