Premium
The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change
Author(s) -
Keppel Gunnar,
Mokany Karel,
Wardell-Johnson Grant W,
Phillips Ben L,
Welbergen Justin A,
Reside April E
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
frontiers in ecology and the environment
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.918
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1540-9309
pISSN - 1540-9295
DOI - 10.1890/140055
Subject(s) - refugium (fishkeeping) , climate change , environmental resource management , biodiversity , adaptive capacity , prioritization , scope (computer science) , identification (biology) , scale (ratio) , ecology , geography , habitat , environmental science , computer science , biology , business , process management , cartography , programming language
Refugia – areas that may facilitate the persistence of species during large‐scale, long‐term climatic change –are increasingly important for conservation planning. There are many methods for identifying refugia, but the ability to quantify their potential for facilitating species persistence (ie their “capacity”) remains elusive. We propose a flexible framework for prioritizing future refugia, based on their capacity. This framework can be applied through various modeling approaches and consists of three steps: (1) definition of scope, scale, and resolution; (2) identification and quantification; and (3) prioritization for conservation. Capacity is quantified by multiple indicators, including environmental stability, microclimatic heterogeneity, size, and accessibility of the refugium. Using an integrated, semi‐mechanistic modeling technique, we illustrate how this approach can be implemented to identify refugia for the plant diversity of Tasmania, Australia. The highest‐capacity climate‐change refugia were found primarily in cool, wet, and topographically complex environments, several of which we identify as high priorities for biodiversity conservation and management.