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Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework
Author(s) -
Blonder Benjamin,
Nogués-Bravo David,
Borregaard Michael K.,
Donoghue II John C.,
Jørgensen Peter M.,
Kraft Nathan J. B.,
Lessard Jean-Philippe,
Morueta-Holme Naia,
Sandel Brody,
Svenning Jens-Christian,
Violle Cyrille,
Rahbek Carsten,
Enquist Brian J.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144
H-Index - 294
eISSN - 1939-9170
pISSN - 0012-9658
DOI - 10.1890/14-0589.1
Subject(s) - disequilibrium , climate change , ecology , ecological niche , last glacial maximum , glacial period , environmental science , interglacial , geography , physical geography , biology , medicine , paleontology , habitat , ophthalmology
We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14 000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial–interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near‐future climate change.