Premium
Spatially explicit modeling of 1992–2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States
Author(s) -
Sohl Terry L.,
Sayler Kristi L.,
Bouchard Michelle A.,
Reker Ryan R.,
Friesz Aaron M.,
Bennett Stacie L.,
Sleeter Benjamin M.,
Sleeter Rachel R.,
Wilson Tamara,
Soulard Chris,
Knuppe Michelle,
Van Hofwegen Travis
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
ecological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.864
H-Index - 213
eISSN - 1939-5582
pISSN - 1051-0761
DOI - 10.1890/13-1245.1
Subject(s) - land cover , land use , climate change , environmental science , fragmentation (computing) , land use, land use change and forestry , physical geography , geography , ecology , biology
Information on future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the forecasting scenarios of land‐use change (FORE‐SCE) model. Four spatially explicit data sets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both the proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting had relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less forest cutting. Stand ages differed substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand‐age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.