Modeling spatial decisions with graph theory: logging roads and forest fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon

This article addresses the spatial decision‐making of loggers and implications for forest fragmentation in the Amazon basin. It provides a behavioral explanation for fragmentation by modeling how loggers build road networks, typically abandoned upon removal of hardwoods. Logging road networks provide access to land, and the settlers who take advantage of them clear fields and pastures that accentuate their spatial signatures. In shaping agricultural activities, these networks organize emergent patterns of forest fragmentation, even though the loggers move elsewhere. The goal of the article is to explicate how loggers shape their road networks, in order to theoretically explain an important type of forest fragmentation found in the Amazon basin, particularly in Brazil. This is accomplished by adapting graph theory to represent the spatial decision‐making of loggers, and by implementing computational algorithms that build graphs interpretable as logging road networks. The economic behavior of loggers is conceptualized as a profit maximization problem, and translated into spatial decision‐making by establishing a formal correspondence between mathematical graphs and road networks. New computational approaches, adapted from operations research, are used to construct graphs and simulate spatial decision‐making as a function of discount rates, land tenure, and topographic constraints. The algorithms employed bracket a range of behavioral settings appropriate for areas of terras devolutas , public lands that have not been set aside for environmental protection, indigenous peoples, or colonization. The simulation target sites are located in or near so‐called Terra do Meio , once a major logging frontier in the lower Amazon Basin. Simulation networks are compared to empirical ones identified by remote sensing and then used to draw inferences about factors influencing the spatial behavior of loggers. Results overall suggest that Amazonia's logging road networks induce more fragmentation than necessary to access fixed quantities of wood. The paper concludes by considering implications of the approach and findings for Brazil's move to a system of concession logging.