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DETECTING THE ORDER OF POPULATION DYNAMICS FROM TIME SERIES: NONLINEARITY CAUSES SPURIOUS DIAGNOSIS
Author(s) -
Berryman Alan,
Lima Mauricio
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144
H-Index - 294
eISSN - 1939-9170
pISSN - 0012-9658
DOI - 10.1890/06-0609.1
Subject(s) - spurious relationship , autocorrelation , series (stratigraphy) , population , nonlinear system , time series , statistical physics , statistics , econometrics , biological system , mathematics , ecology , biology , physics , demography , paleontology , quantum mechanics , sociology
Partial autocorrelation and partial rate correlation functions are frequently used to detect the order of the endogenous process generating an observed population time series. Here we uncover a problem with this approach: the diagnosis of spurious second order autocorrelation due to strong nonlinearity in a first order endogenous process, as exemplified by time series data from a population of Soay sheep. Causes and a possible solution are discussed.