DETECTING THE ORDER OF POPULATION DYNAMICS FROM TIME SERIES: NONLINEARITY CAUSES SPURIOUS DIAGNOSIS | Zendy

Berryman Alan | Zendy; Lima Mauricio | Zendy

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DETECTING THE ORDER OF POPULATION DYNAMICS FROM TIME SERIES: NONLINEARITY CAUSES SPURIOUS DIAGNOSIS

Author(s) -

Berryman Alan,

Lima Mauricio

Publication year - 2007

Publication title -

ecology

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144

H-Index - 294

eISSN - 1939-9170

pISSN - 0012-9658

DOI - 10.1890/06-0609.1

Subject(s) - spurious relationship , autocorrelation , series (stratigraphy) , population , nonlinear system , time series , statistical physics , statistics , econometrics , biological system , mathematics , ecology , biology , physics , demography , paleontology , quantum mechanics , sociology

Partial autocorrelation and partial rate correlation functions are frequently used to detect the order of the endogenous process generating an observed population time series. Here we uncover a problem with this approach: the diagnosis of spurious second order autocorrelation due to strong nonlinearity in a first order endogenous process, as exemplified by time series data from a population of Soay sheep. Causes and a possible solution are discussed.

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