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Hidden Process Models For Animal Population Dynamics
Author(s) -
Newman K. B.,
Buckland S. T.,
Lindley S. T.,
Thomas L.,
Fernández C.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
ecological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.864
H-Index - 213
eISSN - 1939-5582
pISSN - 1051-0761
DOI - 10.1890/04-0592
Subject(s) - population , chinook wind , markov chain monte carlo , monte carlo method , computer science , statistics , population model , process (computing) , econometrics , ecology , mathematics , oncorhynchus , biology , fishery , demography , sociology , fish <actinopterygii> , operating system
Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer‐intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter‐run chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytsha ).