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PREDICTING EXTINCTIONS AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Author(s) -
Schwartz Mark W.,
Iverson Louis R.,
Prasad Anantha M.,
Matthews Stephen N.,
O'Connor Raymond J.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144
H-Index - 294
eISSN - 1939-9170
pISSN - 0012-9658
DOI - 10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1611:peaaro]2.0.co;2
Subject(s) - extinction (optical mineralogy) , climate change , vulnerability (computing) , ecology , global warming , extinction debt , distribution (mathematics) , geography , environmental science , biodiversity , biology , habitat destruction , paleontology , mathematical analysis , computer security , mathematics , computer science
Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under‐predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over‐predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.