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SEASONALITY, PARASITE DIVERSITY, AND LOCAL EXTINCTIONS IN PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM MALARIA
Author(s) -
McKenzie F. Ellis,
Killeen Gerry F.,
Beier John C.,
Bossert William H.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144
H-Index - 294
eISSN - 1939-9170
pISSN - 0012-9658
DOI - 10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[2673:spdale]2.0.co;2
Subject(s) - biology , malaria , parasite hosting , vector (molecular biology) , extinction (optical mineralogy) , ecology , plasmodium falciparum , plasmodium (life cycle) , anopheles , transmission (telecommunications) , host (biology) , zoology , immunology , genetics , paleontology , engineering , world wide web , computer science , gene , electrical engineering , recombinant dna
We incorporate stochastic, density‐dependent seasonal recruitment in adult Anopheles mosquito populations in a discrete‐event model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission and find the probabilities of parasite extinction higher than with perennial transmission. Seasonal fluctuations in vector populations act to synchronize the dynamics of infection and immunity in host populations, leading to fluctuations in parasite prevalence greater than expected solely on the basis of high‐ and low‐season vector densities. This synchronization also biases frequencies of infection with multiple parasite phenotypes or genotypes.