Open AccessOn the question of the application of the prediction of the evolution of health risk in hygienic assessments
Author(s) -
Nina V. Zaitseva,
П.З. Шур,
I.V. May,
D.А. Kiryanov
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
gigiena i sanitariâ
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.275
H-Index - 13
eISSN - 2412-0650
pISSN - 0016-9900
DOI - 10.18821/0016-9900-2016-95-1-106-112
Subject(s) - hazard , risk assessment , duration (music) , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental health , health risk assessment , human health , population , risk management , exposure assessment , business , computer science , medicine , biology , ecology , computer security , art , literature , finance
In the paper there are described examples of the practical implementation of methodological approaches to the assessment of evolution of the health risk under exposure to a set of environmental factors. In the hygienic assessment of the dynamics of health risks for citizens, residing near a major airport (about 500 takeoffs and landings per day), there were revealed high risks of disorders of the cardiovascular and nervous system. The difference between the risks emerging under the exposure and without the impact of the factors peculiar to the airport was shown to increase with the age significantly, accounting for 5-year period, 1,2% of the exposure; over 20 years - 8-10%, and during the period of 50 years - more than 20%. There were obtained results describing the dynamics of the gain of risks for the population of all ages, the structure of risks in the different periods of the human life. Outputs of evolutionary modeling allowed to identify critical periods of exposure to factors for which the qualitative changes of levels of risk take place. This is important in justifying the order ofpriorities and urgency of sanitary hygienic measures for risk management. The development of methodological approaches lies in the plane of the refinement of mathematical models, improvement of methods for the assessment of the intensity and duration of exposure, taking into account features of the combined impacts of hazard factors of different nature.