Open AccessThe forecasting potential of adaptive models in tourism
Author(s) -
Анна Александрова,
Е.В. Аигина,
Veronika E. Dombrovskaya
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
turyzm/tourism
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2080-6922
pISSN - 0867-5856
DOI - 10.18778/0867-5856.31.2.10
Subject(s) - tourism , identification (biology) , key (lock) , field (mathematics) , computer science , regional science , operations research , geography , engineering , botany , computer security , mathematics , archaeology , pure mathematics , biology
The article discusses forecasting as one of the special scientific research areas which contribute to the assessment of tourist activity development prospects, the identification of key tourism development factors and effective management decision criteria. The study provides an overview of modern research methods used in Russia and other countries for making forecasts in the field of tourism. It aims at assessing the predictive capabilities of adaptive modeling, not frequently used currently in tourism research, for the quantitative analysis of tourist flows using the example of Barcelona, a major urban tourist destination in the pre-pandemic period. An example of a forecast for tourist numbers based on adaptive models is proposed, one of the key indicators showing tourist region success which have proven successful in the study of processes with a dynamic but unstable character.