Open AccessNomograms for predicting long-term overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with major salivary gland cancer: a population-based study
Author(s) -
Yun Li,
Jun Ju,
Huan Liu,
Tao Gao,
Zhidong Wang,
Qianwei Ni,
Chao Ma,
Zhigang Zhao,
Yixiong Ren,
Miao Sun
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
oncotarget
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.373
H-Index - 127
ISSN - 1949-2553
DOI - 10.18632/oncotarget.14905
Subject(s) - nomogram , medicine , salivary gland cancer , cancer , oncology , relative survival , salivary gland , cancer survival , population , survival analysis , pathology , cancer registry , environmental health
In this study, we aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting long-term overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in major salivary gland cancer (MSGC) patients. These nomograms were developed using a retrospective cohort (N=4218) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and externally validated using an independent data cohort (N=244). We used univariate, and multivariate analyses, and cumulative incidence function to select the independent prognostic factors of OS and CSS. Index of concordance (c-index) and calibration plots were used to estimate the nomograms' predictive accuracy. The median follow-up period was 34 months (1-119 months). Of 4218 MSGC patients, 1320 (31.3%) died by the end of the follow-up; of these 1320 patients, 883 (20.9%) died of MSGC. The OS nomogram, which had a c-index of 0.817, was based on nine variables: age, sex, tumor site, tumor grade, surgery performed, radiation therapy and TNM classifications. The CSS nomogram, which had a c-index of 0.829, was based on the same nine variables plus race. External validation c-indexes were 0.829 and 0.807 for OS and CSS, respectively. Based on SEER database, we have developed nomograms predicting five- and eight-years OS and CSS for MSGC patients with perfect accuracy. These nomograms will help clinicians customize treatment and monitoring strategies in MSGC patients.