Open AccessThe Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economic Sectors of Libya
Author(s) -
Nagmi Moftah Aimer
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
international journal of business and social research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2164-2559
pISSN - 2164-2540
DOI - 10.18533/ijbsr.v6i12.1017
Subject(s) - volatility (finance) , economics , agriculture , oil price , economic sector , manufacturing sector , context (archaeology) , error correction model , monetary economics , macroeconomics , economy , econometrics , cointegration , ecology , paleontology , biology
Fluctuations in oil price and its impact on economic development is an important issue facing a growing number of world economies. A simple changes in oil prices lead to negative or positive effects on all the economic sectors. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of oil price volatility on economic sectors in the Libyan economy context on the basis of annual data spanning from 1968-2012. The Johansen based Co-integration technique is applied to examine the sensitivity of economic sectors to volatility in oil prices in the long-run. And the short-run relationship is tested by Vector Error Correction Model. Through examining the results, that there is a long-term relationship of oil prices on the agriculture, construction, manufacturing and transport sectors. Finally, this study concludes that increases in oil price did not significantly affect the manufacturing sector in aggregate terms. Moreover, the negative impact on the sector of manufacturing and agriculture. Thus, this study has a significant impact in the Libyan economy in policy development on oil prices. The Libyan government needs to control the price to make sure that price volatility will not harm the manufacturing, agriculture, construction and transport sectors.