Future of Health Technology Assessment System in Iran: Necessity of Reinforcement in Both Scenarios of Continuation or Relief of Sanctions

Background: In Iran, health technology assessment (HTA) system dates back to nearly a decades ago (2008). Objectives: The current study aimed to define steps required to expand HTA in Iran by emphasizing possible future events related to the health sector. Methods: A preliminary list of future trends potentially influencing Iran’s HTA system was extracted through the literature review. Then, the trends were presented to 12 experts to obtain their opinions. Afterward, their influence on the future of the HTA system in Iran was investigated using in-depth interviews. The interviews were analyzed using the thematic analysis method; Initially, in three categories of capacity building, provision of HTA, and supportive mechanisms, and then according to the essential functions of a health system (i.e., control knobs). Results: Interviewees believed that strengthening the HTA system is mandatory, regardless of future political events. In the category of capacity building, adjusting training to the needs, using the capacity of graduates in conducting HTAs, training more students in the HTA profession as well as the establishment of a Ph.D. program, turning HTA into public demand, and preventing overuse of medical technologies were elaborated. In the second category (i.e., provision of HTA), the following themes were extracted: modernization and equipping of health system infrastructure based on the evidence provided by HTA, the legitimization of HTA to be used for all health technologies, preventing the introduction of unnecessary technologies and similar technologies that are currently using in Iran, and employing HTA in developing the basic benefit package. Conclusions: Due to international sanctions, Iran has a niche healthcare market. If sanctions continue, HTA would be a serious necessity to increase the resilience of the health system. In the case of sanctions relief, HTA is still necessary for the optimization of allocating resources. These steps, in both scenarios, are mostly related to the institutionalization of HTA, mostly on the legitimization of HTA and behavioral changes.